- A fresh low-pressure area is likely to form over the South Andaman Sea within 24 hours.
- Forecast models differ on whether the system will strengthen or weaken.
- Heavy rainfall and possible flooding continue to pose risks following Cyclone Arnab.
Bhubaneswar: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast the formation of a fresh low-pressure area over the South Andaman Sea within the next 24 hours, even as Odisha continues to experience adverse weather conditions following Cyclone Arnab.
According to the weather department, an upper-air cyclonic circulation persists over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining areas, extending up to 5.8 km above mean sea level. This circulation is expected to trigger the development of a low-pressure area.
However, the IMD has not confirmed whether the new system will intensify into a depression or a cyclonic storm. Forecast models differ on its likely movement and strength, making further weather updates important.
Forecast Models Differ on New Weather System
Most ensemble and artificial intelligence-based forecast models indicate that the developing system could move northwestwards and weaken over the following two days.
In contrast, some models from the US-based Global Forecast System (GFS) suggest that the system could intensify further into a deep depression or potentially a cyclonic storm.
These are model projections, not confirmed forecasts of cyclone formation or landfall. The system’s eventual track and intensity will depend on how it develops over the coming days.
The IMD is expected to provide further clarity through subsequent weather bulletins.
Cyclone Arnab Weakens After Andhra Pradesh Landfall
Cyclone Arnab crossed the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam on October 28.
The system subsequently weakened into a deep depression and moved northwards towards areas adjoining southern Odisha, southern Chhattisgarh and northeastern Telangana.
The IMD has forecast further weakening into a depression, followed by a well-marked low-pressure area.
Despite the reduction in wind intensity, accumulated rainfall and the possibility of flooding remain concerns for affected regions.
Heavy Rainfall Continues Across Odisha
Several districts of Odisha have experienced heavy rainfall under the influence of Cyclone Arnab.
The IMD has reported heavy to very heavy rainfall, with isolated extremely heavy rainfall in parts of southern Odisha. Gajapati, Ganjam, Koraput, Rayagada, Malkangiri and Nabarangpur are among the districts facing significant weather concerns.
The weather department has also warned of thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds in several districts.
Heavy rainfall may cause waterlogging, swollen streams and localised flooding, particularly in low-lying areas. Residents are advised to follow district-level warnings and avoid crossing flooded roads or streams.
Will the New System Bring Another Cyclone to Odisha?
At present, there is no confirmed IMD forecast that the developing low-pressure area will become a cyclone or make landfall along the Odisha coast.
Some forecast models indicate the possibility of further intensification, but projections regarding the system’s track vary. Its potential impact on Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and other coastal regions will become clearer as the system develops.
Residents should avoid relying on unconfirmed cyclone-track graphics circulating on social media and follow official updates from the IMD and Odisha’s disaster management authorities.
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