Patna: The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is set to sweep the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025, according to the latest projection by Today’s Chanakya. The survey predicts the NDA will secure 160 ± 12 seats, while the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is expected to win 77 ± 12 seats. Other parties may bag 6 ± 3 seats, the analysis shows.
The vote share forecast puts the NDA at 44 percent ± 3 percent, while the Mahagathbandhan is likely to get 38 percent ± 3 percent. The seat margin of error stands at ±12 for both main alliances and ±3 for smaller parties.
Caste-Wise Support Gives NDA a Strong Edge
The projection attributes the NDA’s lead to strong backing among Brahmins, Baniyas, and Rajputs (63%), Scheduled Castes (58%), and OBCs and EBCs (55%). Meanwhile, the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan continues to dominate among Yadavs (67%) and Muslims (69%) — its traditional vote base.
Political experts suggest that this caste alignment has reinforced the NDA’s advantage across regions, especially in north and central Bihar, where Nitish Kumar’s governance model and BJP’s organisational strength have created a decisive voter swing.
Exit Polls Indicate Comfortable NDA Majority
Several other exit polls have echoed similar trends, projecting a clear majority for the NDA.
Exit Poll Projections:
- Matrize-IANS: NDA 147–167 | MGB 70–90 | Others 2–6
- People’s Insight: NDA 133–148 | MGB 87–102 | JSP 0–2 | Others 3–6
- Peoples Pulse: NDA 133–159 | MGB 75–101 | JSP 0–5 | Others 2–8
- NDTV: NDA 145–160 | MGB 73–91 | Others 5–7
- Times Now: NDA 135–150 | MGB 88–103 | Others 3–7
All major polls show the NDA comfortably crossing the halfway mark (122 seats) in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, signalling a strong mandate for Nitish Kumar’s leadership.
NDA’s Strong First-Phase Performance Key to Surge
Analysts believe the NDA’s dominance in the first phase of voting gave it early momentum. High turnout in NDA strongholds and effective booth-level management reportedly helped the alliance secure a decisive lead.
Meanwhile, the RJD-Congress combine appears to have made gains in pockets of Seemanchal and Mithilanchal, but not enough to offset the NDA’s statewide advantage.
The final results of the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 will be declared on November 14, and all eyes are now on whether these predictions will translate into an actual electoral sweep for the ruling alliance.
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