Ozone Recovery Could Worsen Global Warming by 40% More Than Expected: Study

Researchers have warned that while the ozone layer’s recovery protects Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation, it could also contribute to climate change far more than earlier thought. A new study estimates that ozone could warm the planet 40% more than previously believed, making it the second biggest contributor to global warming by 2050 after carbon dioxide.

Findings of the study

The research, published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics and led by the University of Reading (UK), revealed that between 2015 and 2050, ozone may cause 0.27 watts per square metre of additional warming. In comparison, carbon dioxide is expected to cause 1.75 watts per square metre.

The findings show that ozone’s impact on climate change was underestimated, with half of its warming linked to stratospheric ozone recovery and the other half to tropospheric ozone precursors caused by human activities.

Ozone recovery: A double-edged sword

The ozone layer has shown recovery in recent decades, thanks to the 1987 Montreal Protocol, which banned harmful chemicals like chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs). While this was crucial for protecting Earth from ultraviolet radiation, it has had an unintended consequence.

“Although repairing the ozone layer prevents UV damage, our study found that this recovery will also warm the planet more than expected,” said William J. Collins, lead author and professor of atmospheric chemistry and earth system modelling at the University of Reading.

Ground-level ozone and air pollution

Beyond the upper atmosphere, ground-level ozone created by air pollution from vehicles, factories, and power plants worsens respiratory health and contributes to planetary warming.

The researchers explained that while banning CFCs and HCFCs was expected to aid in climate change mitigation, the warming effect from ozone recovery has canceled out much of those gains.

The study highlights the need for revised climate strategies that recognize ozone’s growing role in climate change. Researchers emphasized that although air pollution control can reduce ground-level ozone, the warming effect of stratospheric ozone recovery remains unavoidable.

“Climate policies must be updated to account for ozone’s larger warming effect,” the authors concluded.

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