Study: Decline in Aerosol Levels May Be Increasing Heatwaves Faster Than Greenhouse Gases

A groundbreaking study has revealed that declining aerosol levels — a result of cleaner air policies — could be intensifying heatwaves around the globe, potentially even more than greenhouse gas emissions, especially in densely populated regions.

Published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, the study — led by researchers from The University of Texas — is the first to directly link falling aerosol emissions to an increase in heatwave frequency.

Aerosols: A Double-Edged Sword

Aerosols, fine particles found in smog and air pollution, are known for their cooling effect as they reflect sunlight back into space. However, they can also absorb solar radiation, influence cloud formation, and — critically — affect regional climate patterns.

“We knew that aerosol emissions suppressed global warming regionally, but we didn’t anticipate their outsized role in suppressing urban heatwaves,” said co-author Cameron Cummins, a computational geoscientist at the university’s Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences.

Heatwaves Could Triple by 2080

The study projects that, if current trends continue, the average number of global heatwave days could rise from 40 per year today to 110 by 2080. The most vulnerable regions include South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, South America, and Western Europe.

Using global climate models, the researchers found that aerosols may be up to 2.5 times more impactful than greenhouse gases in influencing heatwave frequency in urban regions.

An analysis of climate data dating back to 1920 suggests that higher aerosol emissions suppressed heatwaves in populated areas by about 50%. But as clean air regulations reduce aerosol pollution — which is vital for protecting heart and lung health — this cooling buffer is being lost.

A Warning for Cities Worldwide

“Populated areas, which have historically released the most aerosols, are now facing the sharpest rise in heatwave risk as emissions drop,” said lead author Dr. Geeta Persad, assistant professor at UT’s School of Geosciences.

She warned that cities should not interpret the findings as a reason to maintain pollution, but rather as a signal to prepare for warmer, more extreme conditions as part of the climate trade-off of cleaner air.

“Aerosols have helped shield us from some heatwave exposure,” Persad said. “But that could change rapidly as emissions continue to fall.”

Implications for Climate Policy

While the study reaffirms the importance of reducing harmful air pollution for public health, it also highlights a climate side-effect: the short-term acceleration of warming due to aerosol reductions.

The findings suggest a need for proactive urban planning, heatwave preparedness, and accelerated transition to clean energy to avoid trading one crisis for another.

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