The Gold-Silver Ratio (GSR) — a key metric tracking the relative value of silver to gold — has plunged nearly 20% in recent months, falling from a high of 107 to around 88, signaling a sharp outperformance of silver over gold.
This drop comes as silver prices rally more than 7% on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), even as gold slips nearly 2% over the past month. Silver recently hit a record high of over ₹1,15,000 per kg, driven by strong industrial demand and improved investor sentiment.
Silver Momentum Signals “Risk-On” Shift
“The steep fall in the GSR reflects a shift in momentum towards silver, indicating growing risk appetite in the precious metals market,” said Ajay Kedia, Director at Kedia Advisory. With easing geopolitical tensions, stabilizing US tariff policy, and a favourable supply-demand setup, silver is likely to continue outperforming gold, Kedia added.
Technically, the ratio has broken below its consolidation zone of 90–91, with downside support at 82.74. Resistance is seen at 90.42 and 98.06, suggesting more downside room for the GSR, and continued relative strength for silver.
Silver’s Industrial Strength Reinforces Rally
Echoing this sentiment, Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, called the GSR’s fall a “catch-up move” by silver after a prolonged undervaluation phase. “Silver is both a monetary asset and an industrial metal. The push for green energy, combined with inflation concerns and shifts in central bank policy, is boosting long-term demand for silver,” he said.
Bullion Outlook: Silver to Shine, Gold Under Pressure
Price Forecasts:
- Ajay Kedia expects MCX silver to target ₹1,30,000 per kg in 2025, if it holds above ₹1,15,000. In the short term, dips to ₹1,06,000–₹1,02,000 are seen as buying opportunities.
- Gold, meanwhile, may remain subdued, with MCX prices potentially ending the year around ₹91,000–₹92,000 per 10 grams.
Jigar Trivedi sees silver trading between $38–$44 per ounce over the next 4–6 months. On MCX, he forecasts a near-term range of ₹1,20,000–₹1,25,000, with bullish long-term prospects driven by rising demand from solar energy, EV manufacturing, and electronics.
As global economic sentiment stabilizes and industrial activity picks up, silver appears poised to extend its lead over gold, reinforcing the trend reflected in the falling GSR.
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