Over 9% of Global Land at High Risk of Animal to Human Disease Outbreaks Study

New Delhi: A recent study published in Science Advances has revealed that over 9% of the Earth’s land surface is at high or very high risk of zoonotic disease outbreaks—infections that can spread from animals to humans. These spillover events pose a significant threat to global public health, with the potential to spark future pandemics like COVID-19, Ebola, MERS, SARS, and Nipah virus.

Global Hotspots Identified Using WHO and Epidemiology Data

The study, led by researchers from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) in Italy, analyzed data from the Global Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology Network and the World Health Organization’s (WHO) priority disease list.

According to the findings:

• 9.3% of global land is at elevated zoonotic risk.
  • 6.3% is classified as high risk
  • 3% is deemed very high risk
• These areas house about 3% of the world’s population
• An additional 20% of people live in medium-risk zones

Climate Change Fueling Disease Vulnerability

The researchers emphasize that climate change is a major driver of zoonotic disease risk. Rising temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, and increasing water scarcity are making certain regions more vulnerable to outbreaks.

“Our results indicate a strong link between environmental change and epidemic potential,” the authors wrote, calling for urgent, climate-aligned public health interventions.

Latin America, Oceania, and Asia Among Highest Risk Regions

The study found significant regional variations in risk:

• Latin America: 27% of land at high or very high risk
• Oceania: 18.6%
• Asia: 7%
• Africa: 5%

These findings support the need for region-specific policies that integrate environmental health, surveillance, and emergency preparedness.

New Epidemic Risk Index Proposed

To better manage future threats, the researchers introduced an Epidemic Risk Index, which factors in both regional zoonotic risks and a country’s ability to respond. This tool is designed to help governments and health agencies allocate resources, build capacity, and foster international collaboration.

India: 8.3% of Outbreaks Were Zoonotic (2018–2023)

Separately, a study by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), published in The Lancet Regional Southeast Asia in May 2025, found that 8.3% of all outbreaks in India from 2018 to 2023 were zoonotic in origin. Of 6,948 total outbreaks, 583 were animal-to-human transmissions.

The Indian study also noted a seasonal pattern, with most zoonotic outbreaks peaking between June and August, underlining the need for targeted public health readiness during these months.

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